Cheltenham Festival 2011: The Big Chances from The Big Stables

Posted by Matt Bisogno on March 9, 2011 · 9 Comments 

Our roving reporter gives you the low down on the chances of the Alan King, Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Nigel Twiston-Davies stables at Cheltenham

Cheltenham Festival 2011: Day One, Tuesday Preview

Menorah wins the Supreme Novices. This time he goes for the Champion Hurdle itself.

It’s upon us, dear reader, the Cheltenham Festival 2011 is finally upon us. And if you’re anything like me, this is THE most exciting week in the sport with no exceptions. I love the Cheltenham Festival like no other sporting event, and I love a lot of sporting events!

The quality, the depth, the human and equine stories, the crowds, the colour, the pageantry, the Guinness, the craic, the Irish, the English (and the Scottish and the Welsh), the amateurs, the big stables, the little men (and women – they’re generally all quite small!)… all of it is fantastic.

And then there’s the small matter of the punting. Twenty-seven races make up the Cheltenham Festival, seven each on Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday; six on Thursday. There’s a charity race too but I hope you’ll forgive me overlooking that one…

OK, so let’s get to it. We’ve a LOT to get through. Here’s my take on Tuesday’s races:

1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle

The roar as the tapes go up for the first race is as raucous as any you’ll hear in horse racing, and the cheers at Cheltenham are echoed in pubs, clubs and living rooms up and down the country. It is truly a momentous moment, as the hounds (or, more correctly, the horses) are unleashed to dally with our punting hopes and fortunes.

Casting the ham-fisted poetics to one side and focusing on the numbers, the opener is a race where generally there’s one horse around which the verdict revolves. In 2009, it was Cousin Vinny, last year it was Dunguib, and this year it’s Cue Card.

But whereas the two Irish raiders were considered outstanding amongst their novice fraternity, Cue Card has tested his mettle against the best hurdlers full stop. His four and a bit length second to Menorah in a Grade 2 non-novice event stands head and shoulders above any other formline in the race, and a repeat of that would probably be good enough to win.

As such, if you fancy anything other than Cue Card then I’d advise betting with

Cheltenham Festival 2011: Day Two Wednesday Preview

Big Zeb bids to double up in the Champion Chase, having won it last year

Seven races gone, and twenty more to come, as we wade into Day Two of the 2011 Cheltenham Festival. I will be there today, cheering and hollering if I’m lucky enough to have anything that looks like it might win… and this is where my money will be going.

1.30 National Hunt Challenge Cup Chase

My views on amateur rider races are well known in the Geegeez community. In short, I don’t very much like them. In point of fact, I can’t generally stand them. But this is the Cheltenham Festival, and I must set aside my personal grievances with such contests and attempt to identify some value amidst the chaos that will undoubtedly ensue through the fully four miles and 25 fences that separate this hapless and hap-hazard bunch of novice horses and riders between the tapes going up and the majority of them coming down.

In fairness, about half will get round, many in their own time. But it is not a race where many punters will have identified their ‘Festival banker’, if such a thing even exists.

To thin out the field, let’s borrow some historical principles. Specifically, we need something that is mature enough, and has sufficient stamina (and at least hinted at it).

The market generally gets this race wrong, and the reason for that is because it’s not a race like the others that these will have previously contested. It’s four miles around Cheltenham. So if you can spot a plodder who needs further (I wish we’d entered Night Orbit in here – I really think he’d have had an outside chance) then you might have found the winner, assuming both horse and pilot can jump.

It’s also prudent to add that Jonjo O’Neill has saddled an incredible four of the last nine winners of the race, though none in the last three years. Two of the other trainers in the last few years to saddle the winner here were Nigel Twiston-Davies and Ferdy Murphy, both of whom excel with staying chasers. So look to the teams who do this best.

The ones I like are Aberdale, Pearlysteps, Some Target and Sona Sasta. I know that’s four but it’s a braver soul than me who goes to war in this race with less than a handful!

Aberdale is trained by Jonjo, is bred for and should improve for a trip, has won over three miles, and is generally a safe conveyance.

Pearlysteps is another who has looked better the further he’s gone. Indeed, his only chase win was when not out-plodded over 3m2f on soft ground. He bagged a 2m4f hurdle on good ground to hint at versatility in that regard, and is another with a chance.

If I’m going to side with an ‘obvious’ one in the race, it’s Some Target, who won over 3m4f in a Punchestown handicap chase. The going needs to be taken on trust, and it’s not actually a great race for the Irish, but Willie Mullins’ nag has decent enough prospects with the ‘clear round’ caveat.

Rounding out my quintet is David Pipe’s Sona Sasta. He stays, is two from two over fences including in a decent enough race at Newbury, and comes from a stable that have plenty of ammo to aim at a race like this. He also has the able assistance – in the context of this race – of Mr J J Codd, who has at least proven he can win at the Festival when grabbing the 2009 Kim Muir, another race for amateur riders.

Selection: Sona Sasta
Each Way: Pearlysteps, Aberdale, Some Target
Others shortlisted: Cannington Brook (non-runner)

2.05 Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle

A two mile five furlong novice hurdle won by some very good horses in recent years, including Peddlers Cross last term. We’re looking for an existing level of high class form in the book here, which helps to explain why nine of the last ten winners returned 12/1 or shorter. Even Massini’s Maguire, when winning at 20/1 had already finished second and third in grade 2 contests.

So discount anything without top form already. Alas for me, that excludes my ante-post punt in the race, So Young. I backed him at 14′s and he’s now as short as 10/3 favourite. On the bright side, Willie Mullins has trained two of the last three winners of the race, so he knows what it takes to go close here. Fiveforthree, the 2008 winner, also had a similar low profile build up to the race.

Of the more proven beasties, it’s hard to look beyond the flag-bearers for the British and Irish formbooks. Bobs Worth’s win in the race with the same name as this back in January here, where he powered past Rock On Ruby, Habbie Simpson, Backspin and the rest, was excellent. Surprisingly, he misses this race in favour of the Albert Bartlett.

Likewise, Oscars Well’s double Grade 1 wins are hard to crab in the context of his own back yard, but different ground and  opposition here will present a very different challenge. Nevertheless, he did the job with something in hand last time and could improve more than Bobs. If he handles the quicker ground, then he must be very tough to beat.

Selection: Oscars Well (So Young backed already)
Each Way: Habbie Simpson
Others shortlisted: Bobs Worth

2.40 RSA Chase

This is a race where in my opinion far too much has been made of Time For Rupert. He’s won two novice chases here over shorter trips, and he’s won them well enough. But the last of that pair was in early December and the form of neither race has worked out especially well.

Furthermore, it DEFINITELY doesn’t follow that a very good hurdler makes a very good chaser. If Mikael d’Haguenet is not a good enough example, then consider Big Buck’s himself, who only went hurdling in the first place because he was below top class as a chaser.

Two chase starts means Time For Rupert is inexperienced, and that could be costly here. No run since mid-December means that many of the horses here could have improved past him. Or at least one or two.

As you’ve probably gathered, I think that 9/4 is a poor price. I’m not saying Time For Rupert won’t win. He has plenty of class and could do no more than prevail in his two chasing runs. But in a race of this nature, where all of the last eleven winners had three or more chasing experiences under their belt, there is no margin for upside in a price around 2/1.

Looking at the rest of the field, demonstrated class is an imperative, as is consistent win or place form. My shortlist comprises five, some of whom don’t now run here. They are Jessies Dream, Magnanimity, Quito de la Roque, Wayward Prince, and Wishfull Thinking.

I’d taken a chance with Quito de la Roque, representing last year’s owner, The Gigginstown Stud (or Mr Ryanair if you prefer). He’d won his last two easily enough, both Grade 2 novice chases, and both of sodden turf. It was to be taken on trust that he could translate that form to a sounder surface but, although that is a hardy perennial that is proven to be bunk on numerous occasions every year at the Festival, connections felt the ground had gone against him so he’s scratched.

Nevertheless, as a general rule of thumb, the fact that a horse has done his winning on a soft surface when all his races have been on such going, doesn’t preclude it from actually improving for a faster track. That won’t be the case with my ante-post punt here, but there’s generally much more margin for forgiveness in a bookie quote of 20/1 than there is in one of 2/1 – about ten times as much!

World Cup 2011: New Zealand v Sri Lanka – betting preview

Game:- New Zealand v Sri Lanka
Competition :- Cricket World Cup 2011
Venue :- Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai
Date :- Friday, 18 March 2011
Start time:- 09:00 GMT

Both New Zealand and Sri Lanka have already qualified for the quarter final stage of the ICC 2011 Cricket World Cup. Their final game in this longish Group Stage would determine which team finishes higher up in the Group, thereby getting a ‘lower-ranked’ team from Group B as their opponents in the quarter-finals. Read our New Zealand v Sri Lanka betting preview and head over to Bet365 to place your bets.

New Zealand results – last few games – most recent games on top
v. Canada (Won by 97 runs) B McCullum 101, Oram 3-47
v. Pakistan (Won by 110 runs) Taylor 131

World Cup 2011: Pakistan vs New Zealand – betting preview

Game:- Pakistan v New Zealand
Competition :- Cricket World Cup 2011
Venue :- Pallekele International Cricket Stadium, Kandy
Date :- Tuesday, 8 March 2011
Start time:- 09:00 GMT

The abandoned game between Australia and Sri Lanka has opened up Group A. Pakistan are sitting pretty on top, having won three in three. Another win would guarantee them a spot in the last eight. New Zealand, on the other hand, would move above Sri Lanka and Australia with a win on Tuesday. Don’t miss a chance to make some money on this game – head over to Bet365 after having read our betting preview.

Pakistan results – last few games – most recent games on top
v. Canada (Won by 46 runs) Akmal U 48, Afridi 5-23
v. Sri Lanka (Won by 11 runs) Misbah-ul-Haq 83, Afridi 4-34
v. Kenya (Won by 205 runs) Akmal 71, Afridi 5-16
v. England (Lost by 67 runs) Younis 80, Junaid 3-44

Pakistan looked to have shot themselves in the foot after folding up for a paltry 184 against Canada, but an inspired effort in the field under Shahid Afridi’s all-round leadership saw them eek out an important win. Pakistan’s top-order batting has not been very impressive. Their opening batsmen have failed to give them any sort of a good start. They have had to rely a bit too much on the all-round ability of Afridi and Razzaq. Abdur Rehman, who missed the game against Canada, is fit and practised with the side. It remains to be seen if he makes the side in place of Saeed Ajmal.

New Zealand results – last few games – most recent games on top
v. Zimbabwe (Won by 10 wickets) Guptill 86, Southee 3-29
v. Australia (Lost by 7 wickets) N McCullum 52, Bennett 2-63
v. Kenya (Won by 10 wickets) Guptill 39

World Cup 2011: Australia v Zimbabwe – betting preview

Game:- Australia v Zimbabwe
Competition :- Cricket World Cup 2011
Venue :- Sardar Patel Stadium, Motera, Ahmedabad
Date :- Monday, 21 February 2011
Start time:- 09:00 GMT

Australia have reached the finals of every World Cup since 1996, winning it on the last three occasions. They begin their quest to win a record fourth consecutive World Cup against lowly Zimbabwe at Ahmedabad. The bookmakers have the Aussies as firm favourites for this tie. Read our preview and bet on the game with Bet365.

Australia results – last few games – most recent games on top
v. South Africa (Lost by 7 wickets) Clarke 73
v. India (Lost by 38 runs) Ponting 57, Lee 3-35

Although the Aussies have lost both their warm-up games, they are still very much firm favourites to lift the Cup. Not long ago, they comprehensively demolished England 6-1 in the one-day series following the Ashes. The Cup may well be the last tournament for household names such as Ricky Ponting and Brett Lee. The core of the side is very young and has some promising all-round players in Shane Watson, Steven Smith, John Hastings and finally, Michael Clarke.

Zimbabwe results – last few games – most recent games on top
v. Ireland (Lost by 4 wickets) Chigumbura 103, Price 2-37
v. South Africa(Lost by 8 wickets) Taylor 40, Price 1-19

The turmoil in Zimbabwe over the last decade had a morbid effect on their cricket. After looking like strong competitors at the turn of the century, their cricket faded into obscurity. As late as 2009, cricket has stabilized. Their squad is led by a young, 24-year all-rounder called Elton Chigumbura. The hard-hitting batsman has an experience of 120 ODIs under his belt and will have to lead Zimbabwe from the front. Brendon Taylor, Charles Coventry and Tatenda Taibu are no mugs with the bat. They also have a very competent spin department – Ray Price, Prosper Utseya and Greame Cremer will be more than handy on Indian pitches.

Match Verdict: Bet365 have made Aussies the clear favourites by with odds of 1/16 on a Aussie win. It’s hard to not see that happening.

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World Cup 2011: England vs Netherlands – betting preview

World Cup 2011: England vs Netherlands – betting previewPosted on February 20th, 2011 in Cricket World Cup

Game:- England vs Netherlands
Competition :- Cricket World Cup 2011
Venue :- Vidarbha Cricket Association, Nagpur
Date :- Tuesday, 22 February 2011
Start time:- 09:00 GMT

England start off their World Cup campaign against Netherlands at Nagpur. While England are expected to make the knock-out stages at the least, Netherlands would do well to win a game in the group. England have been made strong favourites by Bet365. Read our preview and place a bet or two.

England results – last few games – most recent games on top
v. Pakistan (Won by 67 runs) Pietersen 66, Broad 5-25
v. Canada (Won by 16 runs) Prior 78, Broad 5-37

England have been tinkering with their line-up in the warmup games. Their top order is yet to settle down as a cohesive unit. A lot of players are coming back into the side after injury, and hence need to be eased into the game. Andy Flower would demand that his side do much better than the 1-6 loss in the ODI Series Down Under.

Kevin Pietersen has been made the makeshift opened for the World Cup. He will face the new ball along with Andrew Strauss. Eoin Morgan’s enterprise will be sorely missed for the talented southpaw will miss the World Cup with a finger injury. On the bowling front, Tim Bresnan’s calf tear is the biggest concern. He is fighting a race against time to be fit for this game against Holland.

Netherlands results – last few games – most recent games on top
v. Kenya (Won by 2 wickets) ten Doeschate 98 & 2-47
v. Zimbabwe (Loss by 115 runs) Kervezee 33, Bukhari 3-42

Peter Borren will lead the Dutch outfit this time around, and there are six players playing their first World Cup. Essex and Tasmania star Ryan ten Doeschate and Worcestershire-based opener Alexei Kervezee will be the mainstays in batting. Young wicketkeeper Wesley Baresi, seamers Westdijk and Bradley Kruger have shown a lot of promise.

Match Verdict: Although we are not sure of England’s chances to lift the Cup, it can be safely said that they will overpower Netherlands in their opening game.

          Related PostsWorld Cup 2011: Sri Lanka vs Canada – betting previewWorld Cup 2011: New Zealand v Kenya – betting previewWorld Cup 2011: India v Bangladesh – betting previewWorld Cup 2011: Australia v Zimbabwe – betting previewWorld Cup Finals – Netherlands vs Spain previewTags: Add a Comment

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