Posted by Matt Bisogno on August 24, 2010 · 1 Comment
It may be more than six months away, dear reader, meaning that last year’s Champion Hurdle is closer to now than next year’s… but that doesn’t stop us betting on the Guineas ante-post, and they’re in May! So let’s get the ball rolling for the 2011 Cheltenham Festival with a first look at the Champion Hurdle.
So why would I think I can pick the winner of this ultra-competitive race before the National Hunt season has even begun?! Well, quite simply, most of the clues we need to steal a march on the market are already in situ, as the key clues were provided last season.
Let’s look more deeply into the facts and figures to see how they can help us dig out a few decent bets for the 2011 Champion Hurdle.
The most significant factor in identifying the Champion Hurdle shortlist is course form. And not just course form, but Festival course form. In the last nine years, since the foot and mouth epidemic in 2001, the winners had all either won at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival (four Champion Hurdle winners); or, placed in the previous year’s Champion Hurdle (four); or, finished in the top four in a Festival Grade 1 race the year before (one).
In fact, this run goes back to 1998 if we include Istabraq’s mighty treble in the race (he won the Sun Alliance at the Festival in 1997, before his hat-trick in the Champion Hurdle).
The full run down is as follows:
Year Winner Best Run Season Prior
2010 Binocular 3rd Champion Hurdle (G1)
2009 Punjabi 3rd Champion Hurdle (G1)
2008 Katchit WON Triumph Hurdle (G1)
2007 Sublimity 4th Supreme Novices Hdle (G1)
2006 Brave Inca 3rd Champion Hurdle (G1)
2005 Hardy Eustace WON Champion Hurdle (G1)
2004 Hardy Eustace WON RSA Hurdle (G1)
2003 Rooster Booster WON County Hurdle (G3 Hcap)
2002 Hors La Loi III 2nd Champion Hurdle 2000 (G1)
2001 No Race Foot and mouth
2000 Istabraq WON Champion Hurdle (G1)
1999 Istabraq WON Champion Hurdle (G1)
1998 Istabraq WON Sun Alliance Hurdle (G1)
There has only been one winner who didn’t win a Graded hurdle or finish in the first three in the previous Champion Hurdle. So, we can narrow our shortlist down quite quickly into probables and possibles. Let’s do that now:
Probables
Champion Hurdle 1-2-3
Binocular
Khyber Kim
Zaynar
Cheltenham 2010 Graded Winners
Menorah
Peddlers Cross
Soldatino
Thousand Stars
Berties Dream
Possibles (placed in a Grade 1 Hurdle at Cheltenham 2010)
Get Me Out Of Here, Dunguib, Oscar Whisky, Reve De Sivola, Rite Of Passage, Summit Meeting, Barizan, Alaivan, Carlito Brigante, Najaf, Kennel Hill, Arvika Ligeonniere
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