Seven races gone, and twenty more to come, as we wade into Day Two of the 2011 Cheltenham Festival. I will be there today, cheering and hollering if I’m lucky enough to have anything that looks like it might win… and this is where my money will be going.
1.30 National Hunt Challenge Cup Chase
My views on amateur rider races are well known in the Geegeez community. In short, I don’t very much like them. In point of fact, I can’t generally stand them. But this is the Cheltenham Festival, and I must set aside my personal grievances with such contests and attempt to identify some value amidst the chaos that will undoubtedly ensue through the fully four miles and 25 fences that separate this hapless and hap-hazard bunch of novice horses and riders between the tapes going up and the majority of them coming down.
In fairness, about half will get round, many in their own time. But it is not a race where many punters will have identified their ‘Festival banker’, if such a thing even exists.
To thin out the field, let’s borrow some historical principles. Specifically, we need something that is mature enough, and has sufficient stamina (and at least hinted at it).
The market generally gets this race wrong, and the reason for that is because it’s not a race like the others that these will have previously contested. It’s four miles around Cheltenham. So if you can spot a plodder who needs further (I wish we’d entered Night Orbit in here – I really think he’d have had an outside chance) then you might have found the winner, assuming both horse and pilot can jump.
It’s also prudent to add that Jonjo O’Neill has saddled an incredible four of the last nine winners of the race, though none in the last three years. Two of the other trainers in the last few years to saddle the winner here were Nigel Twiston-Davies and Ferdy Murphy, both of whom excel with staying chasers. So look to the teams who do this best.
The ones I like are Aberdale, Pearlysteps, Some Target and Sona Sasta. I know that’s four but it’s a braver soul than me who goes to war in this race with less than a handful!
Aberdale is trained by Jonjo, is bred for and should improve for a trip, has won over three miles, and is generally a safe conveyance.
Pearlysteps is another who has looked better the further he’s gone. Indeed, his only chase win was when not out-plodded over 3m2f on soft ground. He bagged a 2m4f hurdle on good ground to hint at versatility in that regard, and is another with a chance.
If I’m going to side with an ‘obvious’ one in the race, it’s Some Target, who won over 3m4f in a Punchestown handicap chase. The going needs to be taken on trust, and it’s not actually a great race for the Irish, but Willie Mullins’ nag has decent enough prospects with the ‘clear round’ caveat.
Rounding out my quintet is David Pipe’s Sona Sasta. He stays, is two from two over fences including in a decent enough race at Newbury, and comes from a stable that have plenty of ammo to aim at a race like this. He also has the able assistance – in the context of this race – of Mr J J Codd, who has at least proven he can win at the Festival when grabbing the 2009 Kim Muir, another race for amateur riders.
Selection: Sona Sasta
Each Way: Pearlysteps, Aberdale, Some Target
Others shortlisted: Cannington Brook (non-runner)
2.05 Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle
A two mile five furlong novice hurdle won by some very good horses in recent years, including Peddlers Cross last term. We’re looking for an existing level of high class form in the book here, which helps to explain why nine of the last ten winners returned 12/1 or shorter. Even Massini’s Maguire, when winning at 20/1 had already finished second and third in grade 2 contests.
So discount anything without top form already. Alas for me, that excludes my ante-post punt in the race, So Young. I backed him at 14′s and he’s now as short as 10/3 favourite. On the bright side, Willie Mullins has trained two of the last three winners of the race, so he knows what it takes to go close here. Fiveforthree, the 2008 winner, also had a similar low profile build up to the race.
Of the more proven beasties, it’s hard to look beyond the flag-bearers for the British and Irish formbooks. Bobs Worth’s win in the race with the same name as this back in January here, where he powered past Rock On Ruby, Habbie Simpson, Backspin and the rest, was excellent. Surprisingly, he misses this race in favour of the Albert Bartlett.
Likewise, Oscars Well’s double Grade 1 wins are hard to crab in the context of his own back yard, but different ground and opposition here will present a very different challenge. Nevertheless, he did the job with something in hand last time and could improve more than Bobs. If he handles the quicker ground, then he must be very tough to beat.
Selection: Oscars Well (So Young backed already)
Each Way: Habbie Simpson
Others shortlisted: Bobs Worth
2.40 RSA Chase
This is a race where in my opinion far too much has been made of Time For Rupert. He’s won two novice chases here over shorter trips, and he’s won them well enough. But the last of that pair was in early December and the form of neither race has worked out especially well.
Furthermore, it DEFINITELY doesn’t follow that a very good hurdler makes a very good chaser. If Mikael d’Haguenet is not a good enough example, then consider Big Buck’s himself, who only went hurdling in the first place because he was below top class as a chaser.
Two chase starts means Time For Rupert is inexperienced, and that could be costly here. No run since mid-December means that many of the horses here could have improved past him. Or at least one or two.
As you’ve probably gathered, I think that 9/4 is a poor price. I’m not saying Time For Rupert won’t win. He has plenty of class and could do no more than prevail in his two chasing runs. But in a race of this nature, where all of the last eleven winners had three or more chasing experiences under their belt, there is no margin for upside in a price around 2/1.
Looking at the rest of the field, demonstrated class is an imperative, as is consistent win or place form. My shortlist comprises five, some of whom don’t now run here. They are Jessies Dream, Magnanimity, Quito de la Roque, Wayward Prince, and Wishfull Thinking.
I’d taken a chance with Quito de la Roque, representing last year’s owner, The Gigginstown Stud (or Mr Ryanair if you prefer). He’d won his last two easily enough, both Grade 2 novice chases, and both of sodden turf. It was to be taken on trust that he could translate that form to a sounder surface but, although that is a hardy perennial that is proven to be bunk on numerous occasions every year at the Festival, connections felt the ground had gone against him so he’s scratched.
Nevertheless, as a general rule of thumb, the fact that a horse has done his winning on a soft surface when all his races have been on such going, doesn’t preclude it from actually improving for a faster track. That won’t be the case with my ante-post punt here, but there’s generally much more margin for forgiveness in a bookie quote of 20/1 than there is in one of 2/1 – about ten times as much!
