Posted by Matt Bisogno on October 15, 2010 · Leave a Comment
It’s questions and answers today, dear reader, as we ponder the Dewhurst and seek to learn more about what you think.
First up, let’s take a look at the Dewhurst, like so many other sites already seem to have, and consider whether this really will be the Master Butcher of two year old reputations (and whether that really was the most shoehorned punchline in the history of the Geegeez blog..!)
Lies, damn lies and statistics are about to be blended in a great big metaphorical Moulinex with speed figures, form ratings and anything else I can grab to hand, with the possible exception of the mug of Lemsip I’m currently drinking.
So what of the histowical twends (as Elmer Fudd or Jonathan Ross might have said)?
A key stat of convenience – and one upon which I want to focus – is this: seven of the last nine winners of the Dewhurst had raced four or more times prior to showing up at the Newmarket showpiece. Frankel hasn’t. Nor has Dream Ahead. Oh, and nor has Saamidd.
Here’s another convenient, and possibly hard to ignore stat. Four of the last eight winners were priced at 20/1 or bigger.
Does this mean Frankel, Dream Ahead or Saamidd won’t win? Emphatically, and – I hope – obviously, NO! But it does mean that we have just cause to seek ‘value’ somewhere else.
In 2008, Rip Van Winkle was bashed out of sight here at 6/4. When Sir Percy won in 2005, he beat the 8/11 shot Horatio Nelson. In 2003, Three Valleys was just seen off at 11/4 with Haafhd further back. In 2002, Trade Fair suffered a similar reverse at short odds.
Now it’s also true that this is the smallest Dewhurst Stakes for many a long year. Does that mean we’re more or less likely to get a shock result? Erm, I don’t know. But it could well become a tactical affair with a sprint finish. With none of the big trainers seeing fit to field a pacemaker, who will cut out the donkey work?
From a pace angle, I suspect Waiter’s Dream and Roderic O’Connor are most likely to take it on early… at least that’s what the form in the book implies of their running styles. With a quartet of smart horses behind, either of these will have to be very talented to maintain the lead and prevail. It doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but I suspect these two will be spent if they adopt pace pressing tictacs.
On class, it’s tough to choose between Frankel, Dream Ahead and Saamidd, all of whom have been hugely impressive in their collective eight race unbeaten streak.
Frankel is the one who might be tested the most if the early gallop is strong, as his two most recent and most facile victories have seen him employ a truly devastating burst of speed off a funereal early gallop. His debut run, where experience was against him of course, was a much more battling half length verdict over Nathaniel, who was beaten again next time.
In fairness, the form of that race has worked out well, and his pulverizing of four moderate rivals last time is performance he couldn’t really have made more eye-catching.
But. But… on form in the book, he’s not met a rival as strong as… well as the worst horse in this race. His highest rated rival to date was 101. Waiter’s Dream, the worst in here with an official figure, is rated 109.
None of this means Frankel won’t win, far less he can’t win. It simply means you’re betting odds on that he beats better horses than he’s so far faced. Of course, he’s capable of doing that. But I will always look elsewhere for a bet in races like these.
So what of the rest? Well, Saamidd is fairly closely tied in with Waiter’s Dream on their Champagne Stakes running, albeit that the former won that race with 2 3/4 lengths back to the latter. That was unquestionably a stronger field than anything Frankel has faced, but it doesn’t necessarily mean I’m more of a Saamidd fan.
