Torres once again fails to fire

50million price tag with another ineffectual display for Chelsea, in their 1-0 Champions League loss to Manchester United this week. The striker was chosen to partner Didier Drogba in a two-pronged attack which rarely threatened the United defence, and Torres once again looked a shadow of his former self.

His frustration was evident in the two blatant dives the Spaniard performed in hopes of winning a penalty for his team, and hiding the fact that he’s currently being out-paced by defenders with relative ease. The Champions League betting tips now suggest his side could be in real trouble.

After yet another uninspiring performance from the Spaniard, Ancelotti will come under pressure to change his tactics for next week’s crunch return leg at Old Trafford. Torres and Drogba never looked in sync in the narrow defeat and it would seem unlikely that the Italian will go with the partnership again on Tuesday.

It would look as though the only option to the Chelsea boss would be to go with the tried and tested lone striker and two attacking wide men. On current form it would be hard to imagine Torres filling that role as the lone front-man, and Drogba could be handed the job and the Champions League predications reflect this.

Former Chelsea assistant boss Ray Wilkins is certainly clear in his agreement that the 4-4-2 system didn’t work. The ex England international expects Ancelotti to revert to the three front-men, with Torres missing out.

“I would play Didier up top on his own, with (Florent) Malouda on the left and either Nicolas Anelka or Salomon Kalou on the right,” he said.

punters shafted again by lame rules and poor stewarding

The UK racing industry insists on running these low standard all-weather meetings to generate turnover to pay the Levy. The Levy fund isn't enough to provide decent prizemoney for these rubbish events. Ireland, slated recently for not having their all-weather track open during the depths of winter, at least maintain a standard - they have minimum prizemoney levels they refuse to break, meaning they won't just run rubbish races for the sake of it with prizemoney of a case of Guinness.

At Lingfield on Thursday, two low-grade handicaps - Class 6 - the lowest of the low in Britain, and described as "..shit, low-grade handicaps" by the trainer in question, were won by horses which were entitled by 20/1 shots at least, with zero recent form on the board. Both horses were backed into favouritism (which to be honest, wouldn't require millions on such poor races) and won comfortably. The humble punter who wasn't in on the information is entitled to throw his hands in the air and give up when formlines like that can be overcome.

The trainer here, Noel Quinlan, has done nothing wrong - he has simply exploited weak points in the current system, like numerous other trainers have done in the past. But he shouldn't be allowed to do so. Punters fund the industry. It is their losses which go to the bookmakers. It is the bookies' profits which pays the levy which funds racing prizemoney. Keep treating punters like idiots and they will find something else to bet on - football, darts, X-Factor, politics... it's a very long list these days.

Punters deserve to be informed. If trainers are running their horses for prizemoney paid for by PUNTERS MONEY, then they should be forced to declare ALL vet treatment. Australian racing has just brought in a nationwide requirement to report any treatment on a horse appearing for a race:

Trainers will soon have to report all relevant procedures administered to a horse. At present, wind operations, bone-chip removals, etc, do not have to be reported, although there is a rule where a trainer has to report to stipes anything that may affect a horse's performance in the week before a race. ''The rule currently is in relation to what's happened in the lead-up to a race,'' Murrihy said. ''Stewards believe it should be mandatory to report things like wind operations and this will be made public.''


Bookmakers concerned Lingfield betting coup will alienate punters

The stewards at Lingfield on Thursday asked no direct questions of the trainers who landed a betting coup in each of the last two races, it emerged yesterday. Noel Quinlan said he spoke only to the stipendiary steward after the easy victories of Bishopbriggs and Tell Halaf, from the Newmarket stable which he shares with his brother, Michael.

Both horses had started at double-figure odds and been well beaten in their six most recent outings but were sent off as favourites at Lingfield after strong late support. Representatives of the major bookmaking firms said that such events could alienate punters from the sport.

"I didn't go into the stewards' at all," Quinlan said, "The stipe took notes off me, took them to the stewards and they've accepted my explanations. I couldn't see why they wouldn't. We're talking about shit, low-grade handicaps."

Bookies aren't particularly whinging about this case, other plunges have cost them far more financially, it's just the industry will slowly die unless something is done about it.

Keep screwing punters sideways and they'll find something else to do. The addicts will switch to the soulless FOBTs and virtual racing, the more sensible might just keep their money in their pockets.....Posted byScott Fergusonat17:04

Australian racing sets the standard again

Australian racing is right up there with the best of the world on many fronts - the flagship event of Aus racing, the Melbourne Cup gets a local (not national unfortunately) public holiday; the prizemoney at stake considering the number of race meetings held each year; the facilities at Flemington; the press coverage etc... But the one issue where it really stands head and shoulders above UK racing in particular is stewarding and the regard for punters.

National stewards decide to put punters first in overhaul of rules

STEWARDS from around the country emerged from a two-day conference in Launceston with the punter in mind. A revamp of betting deductions issued when horses are scratched late, an overhaul of the rortable jockey-challenge betting, the old commission-agent bogey, etc, were on the agenda.

Leading form student and respected punter Dominic Beirne overhauled the antiquated betting system. ''It will be a much fairer system and most kind to the punter,'' Racing NSW chief steward Ray Murrihy said yesterday.

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Trainers will soon have to report all relevant procedures administered to a horse. At present, wind operations, bone-chip removals, etc, do not have to be reported, although there is a rule where a trainer has to report to stipes anything that may affect a horse's performance in the week before a race. ''The rule currently is in relation to what's happened in the lead-up to a race,'' Murrihy said. ''Stewards believe it should be mandatory to report things like wind operations and this will be made public.''

Also in the article was a mention of changes to a particular betting market, jockey challenge, where rorting has been noticeable in recent months. The Jockey Challenge is betting on the rider with the most wins (but also carries points for placings) across a meeting. Certain people had exploited markets by learning of last minute pick-up rides before the media and betting firms. Some punters won out of it, but THE MAJORITY lost - thus stewards acted to shut down the exploitation to protect the rank and file punter.

Never let it be forgotten - it is the rank and file punter who funds the industry. Piss them off by inconsistencies which see them lose more/faster than they should, and they will find other hobbies to spend their money on.

Here's more on the mechanics of the changes to the non-runner deductions scale.

Deductions - better go coming for punters

“Currently, let’s say you’re betting on a country meeting and they are betting 170 percent, the scale is designed down at 105 to 110 percent and it’s a bonanza for bookmakers.

“This scale takes into account the prices of all horses in the race and the percentage that’s being bet.”Posted byScott Fergusonat11:40

Fairyhouse card on the move again

The Lord loves a trier’, the saying goes, and if trying was in itself rewarded with success then the racecourse management at Fairyhouse would receive a 5-star rating, writes Elliot Slater.

Despite the desperate wintry conditions, the team at Fairyhouse have refused to give up on one of their main showpiece cards, the raceday that includes three Grade 1 events

Paco Boy Ready to Challenge Goldikova Again

Posted by Leigh on November 3, 2010 · Leave a Comment 

This season has seen the Richard Hannon trained Paco Boy challenge rival Goldikova on three occasions, each ending in defeat.

tennis gets crooked.... again

There's nothing like an end-of-season ATP event to bring out the crooked betting patterns. Throw in an Argentinian facing an eastern European and you have a recipe for disaster... or a perfect set-up, depending on which side of legality you are cheering for.

From the highly valuable subscription service, Tennisform

Zeballos came through in a highly suspicious 3 sets against Janko Tipsarevic, who judging by the pre match and in play betting on Betfair had no intention of winning. Tipsarevic drifted markedly in the Betfair market in the hour before the match started eventually going off the underdog and despite winning the opening set and appearing to be the better player in the second set he was still odds against with Zeballos trading at 1.25 prior to the start of the final set. Some bookies have reportedly voided the match. Tipsarevic said afterwards that he felt a pain in his back in yesterday’s doubles match and today things only worsened. "My opponent was trying to make me run from left to right, and I could not do this. That’s why I tried to play “serve’n’volley” which is so out of character for me," Tipsarevic said. "I have three more tournaments to play this season and I do want to be 100 % fit for the next one in St. Petersburg." (Forum extract) "Here the money clearly knew he was going to tank, even when he was winning." Zeballos 4/6 6/4 6/3.

After the match, Tipsarevic claimed on Twitter to have choked on the key points.

"Biggest choke EVER...All my life playing like shit when I defend the points(finals here last year)on the same week...sigh...no comment..."

Then said in the press conference he had been injured in a doubles match the previous day. "If it was another tournament, not the Kremlin Cup, then I have would have pulled out, but I really enjoy playing in Moscow" ... ""My opponent was trying to make me run from left to right, and I could not do this. That’s why I tried to play “serve’n’volley” which is so out of character for me," Tipsarevic said. "I have three more tournaments to play this season and I do want to be 100 % fit for the next one in St. Petersburg."

Pre-match, the Serb drifted from 1.18 (82% chance of winning) to 2.20 (45% chance) with strong liquidity, not just small chance. And it's not as if Tipsarevic has a clean record when it comes to dodgy tennis...

July 17, 2009 from Tennisform again. "Fears over match-fixing in men's tennis have surfaced for the third time in a month after "extreme movements" in betting patterns on a match between two top 100 players led to cancellation of markets and reports to the authorities. A flood of "unusual" money was placed on Spain's Oscar Hernandez, the world No 56, to beat Serbia's Janko Tipsarevic, the world No 79, in straight sets in the first round of the Mercedes Cup in Stuttgart on Tuesday. High street firms including William Hill suspended betting, while Betfair reported "extreme movements" as abnormal sums were matched on Hernandez. The Spaniard won 6-4, 6-4. The match has been referred to the Gambling Commission and to the sport's in-house Tennis Integrity Unit for investigation. The case is at least the sixth in men's tennis in 2009 to be referred to the GC, the TIU or both."


For those who read this and aren't familiar with the betting elements here and how big an issue this is, here's the case against Tipsarevic:

1 - major drift in the betting against him just before the match.

2 - when he wins the first set, he is even more of an outsider. In a three-set match between two players priced fairly evenly, the winner of the first set should move from 2.0 into around 1.33. Instead, Zeballos who started the match at around 1.8, got shorter after LOSING the first set and then shortened dramatically into 1.25 for the start of the final set. If the match was so even, then it would be reasonable to expect Zeballos would only be a marginal favourite.

3 - ooh, I choked. What a cop-out.

4 - bookmakers aren't stupid. Most suspicious betting comes from the same sources - accts they watch very closely and use as their warning system. When these guys get involved when the odds aren't logical, something is up.

5 - he has a history of such scams, and nothing was done about it.

If it was betting people knowing he was injured pre-match, then the fluctuations wouldn't have been so severe during the match. Sometimes it happens that a player isn't as hurt as they thought and can play a lot better. The evidence is very compelling that it was lot more than that. Betfair continued to trade throughout, with significantly higher volumes than usual, and if called upon, their data will be shared with the ATP and Tennis Integrity Unit. But if past events are anything to go by, nothing will happen. The ATP love getting involved in suspending players for six months for placing €5 bets, but when a genuinely fraudulent match comes up, they crap themselves....

UPDATE - Two hours after the 'choked' tweet, Tipsarevic had obviously been copping some abuse on Twitter..

"Hmmm...Should I really keep this Twitter accout (sic)..."

Oh, and if you think this is an isolated event because I haven't reported one for a while - don't be fooled. It just gets stale after a while....

Here's a link to the in-running odds early in the second set. At that point of the match (Zeballos one set down but a break up) the odds should have reverted to roughly what they were at the start of the match.Posted byScott Fergusonat23:10

Twice Over Scores Again in Champion Stakes

Posted by Leigh on October 16, 2010 · Leave a Comment 

The Henry Cecil trained Twice Over has notched up successive victories with a triumph in the Emirates Airline Champion Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday.

Money-buyers sweating again

Spain leading Scotland 2-0 after 55mins, you'd think there was no chance of the best team in the world giving up that lead against a relative minnow like the Scots....

Racing NSW desperation stakes fails again

Racing NSW, the administrators of what should be the strongest racing in Australia, have shot themselves in the foot yet again as they desperately try to patch up the damage they have caused through pigheadedness and sheer incompetence over the past couple of decades.

Merging racing clubs is the latest buzz strategy in Australian racing - the two metropolitan race clubs in Brisbane were able to do it (purely logical considering the two racecourses were literally across the road from each other), so NSW thought they should follow suit. It gets complicated though because the AJC (Australian Jockey Club) think their shit doesn't stink and any form of 'merger' with the STC (Sydney Turf Club) would reek of a takeover. Amazingly, the AJC members all voted for the merger, as all the benefits would go to them, a $150m grandstand at Randwick. No surprise when the STC voted against the move because of concerns about one of their tracks, Canterbury, being sold off, and worries about key races at Rosehill being moved to Randwick to justify the new bohemiath of a grandstand.

The funniest part though is where the money was supposed to come from. NSW racing is broke. Peter V'Landys and his team of buffoons at Racing NSW are pissing away the lot in court fighting battles which just a basic understanding of competition laws tells you they can't possibly win. So rather than being funded by profits from racing, or from a government grant, the funding for this lavish new grandstand (designed to bring the crowds back to racing) has been posted by TABCorp, a supposedly independent body, in return for selling off their share of the profits in a virtual racing game, Trackside - which will encourage people to stay away from the track and bet on cartoons....

Trackside Bid Runs Off The Rails

The vote last night by Sydney Turf Club members against a merger with the Australian Jockey Club represents the latest in a string of calamities bedeviling the "crash through or crash" management of the industry by Racing NSW.

Characterised by an almost embarrassing subservience to the wishes of TabCorp and ignoring the requirement to consider the public interest set down in the Racing Administration Act, Racing NSW has been brought to account by a handful of STC members who basically said "we've had enough of this stupidity".

Two years ago we saw the race fields debacle unfold.

It wasn't enough for Racing NSW to bring in a payment arrangement for corporate bookmakers, Betfair and interstate TAB's. In collusion with TabCorp the race fields levy system was tricked up to put low margin operators out of business.

While the final appeal judgment is not yet to hand, the outcome is sufficiently uncertain that Racing NSW has had to go searching for a new pot of gold in the meantime.

If you have any interest in this issue, read the full story from Cyberhorse. It's unbelievable that a government-appointed racing body can be so arrogant and naive to think they can get away with such conduct, and outrageous that the government lets them get away with it....Posted byScott Fergusonat09:13

Redford bids to take centre stage again at Ascot

Notts Produce Sky final draw on hold for run-off GBGB seeking sponsors for annual Awards nightRayvin Neasa impresses for Lister in ManchesterDroopys Belletti withdrawn from St LegerLame Farley Zach out of Wimbledon's St LegerRead Full News Service Search News Archive

Goldikova Strikes Again

Posted by Leigh on October 3, 2010 · 1 Comment 

A trip to the Breeders’ Cup may well again be on the cards for the Freddie Head trained charge Goldikova after cementing her place in the records books with a sensational 11th Group One victory in the Qatar Prix de la Foret at Longchamp.

Last year's Sun Chariot stars could clash again

Hearts Of Fire among Tatts Autumn entries Recent Group 3 winner Akarlina in Arc saleIffraaj filly tops closing day of SGA saleBrave Laaheb gives Cape Cross Lodge successChrysanthemum blooms in Park for DancerRead Full News Service TONY MORRIS Zoffany: could thrive beyond a mile at threeBuzzword: honest performer willing to give his all Search News Archive

it's Sunday.. time to bring out Betfair float rumours again

Seriously, which part of a newspaper spouts more crap - the front page of a tabloid, the back pages with transfer rumours during the silly season or the financial pages? For the umpteenth time, a Betfair float is 'imminent' according to the Sunday Times. You can head over there to read it if you believe in Rupert Murdoch's pay-per-view business model, or you can just read one of the many reports regurgitating the same thing like this one...

Betfair gambles on £1.5bn flotation

Gaming giant Betfair is set to press ahead with a £1.5 billion stock market flotation, it has been reported.

The online betting exchange is expected to make an announcement on its plans for an initial public offering within a fortnight, according to the Sunday Times newspaper.

This story reeks of a Ronaldo or Fabregas transfer, it just keeps going on and on and the papers just keep speculating. If you keep throwing darts randomly at dates, eventually they might hit it.

If Betfair do go now, then their analysts and board don't have high expectations for the economy over the next couple of years....

UPDATE:

Rumours are very strong according to company insiders, with one former colleague plugging brokers and tax accountants to ex-employees....Posted byScott Fergusonat16:08

Success for Midday as Sariska Refuses Again

Posted by Leigh on September 12, 2010 · Leave a Comment 

After another refusal to start for Sariska, the Henry Cecil trained Midday ran to success in the Group One Qatar Prix Vermeille at Longchamp.

Pressing Brings Trophy Home Again

Posted by Leigh on September 5, 2010 · Leave a Comment 

With a third consecutive victory in the event, the Michael Jarvis trained Pressing has scored in the International Topkapi Trophy at Veliefendi in Turkey.

English racing a mockery again

Am I Blue, the 33/1 outsider in the morning Racing Post forecast, with a formline of 7-0-0, wins by about 20 lengths (19 officially) in the 3.10 at Hereford after a huge, sustained gamble.

Dean Coleman, a 5lb claimer, is named to ride the horse, the money goes on (started 5/1 second favourite) and lo and behold, the jockey is replaced, and on goes leading jumps jockey Richard Johnson.

Trainer lying through her teeth after the race to say 'we haven't backed it'. Yeah sure. OK, perhaps she didn't, but it was certainly set up for a sting. Lives next to Tim Vaughan, pure coincidence that the Vaughan stable jockey goes on and it bolts in.

1 - surely an investigation is required after a horse looks completely useless in its previous three starts, and then wins by panels.

2 - it's ridiculous that a leading senior jockey is allowed to take over from a conditional jockey. Ireland and Australia have a 'like-for-like' rule - i.e. a senior jockey can only replace a senior jockey, and preferably one of similar ability/standings.

Matt Chapman on ATR after the race mixing between slamming racing for allowing to happen, and being sarcastic about the trainer's answers.

How can racing in the UK grow and thrive when crap like this is allowed to happen? Very poor for the image of the sport - when punters can not have confidence that form is genuine, then they won't bet. And when they don't bet, there's not much money going to the BHA for levy payments....Posted byScott Fergusonat15:27

BHA leadership slaughtered in public again

Lydia Hislop sinks the boots further into the beleaguered Nic Coward of the BHA in this excellent piece from The Guardian. Plaudits for the paper too, for either having very astute commenters, or maintaining a very high standard of comments they accept - they all make perfect sense!

Cheers to Mark Davies for pointing this story out.Posted byScott Fergusonat14:49