Ryder Cups have always been about teamwork. It was almost unanimously accepted that Europe had better mastered the art of building camaraderie than the more individualistic Americans. Much of which must come down to the captaincy. Most famously in 2004, with Europe starting as 3.5 outsiders, US captain Hal Sutton’s simplistic tactic of pairing arch-enemies Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson on the opening morning backfired spectacularly. Under the leadership of the more calculating Bernhard Langer, Europe went on to win by a huge nine point margin.
Last time at Valhalla, the formbook again proved irrelevant. Layers made Europe favourites for the first time ever away from home, yet an ordinary US side took their revenge. I doubt it was pure coincidence that their side was without Woods, never known as a team-player or for his passion in this competition. Nor that Europe had their least convincing captain of the modern era in Nick Faldo.
Does this mean the US will overcome their current inferiority? It certainly means they shouldn’t be daunted by their opponents’ superior rankings, domination of majors and to some extent, the PGA Tour. They can also take heart from emphatic victories in the last two Presidents Cups, suggesting they are finally learning the art of team golf.
Back outsiders in the final-day singles, especially for the home side
Those equalising trends have long been evident in all forms of matchplay, as seen by frequent shock results in the annual World Matchplay events. Over the years in the Ryder Cup, backing the outsider of two in final day singles matches has paid dividends. Blindly backing the outsider for level stakes in each match would have yielded an overall profit over the past decade. Out of the 12 matches, there are always at least a couple of shocks at well over 3.0, which together cover more than half the total layout.
The biggest upset in 2008 was Ben Curtis toppling Lee Westwood. Looking further back, Phil Price’s victory at around 4.5 over Phil Mickelson at The Belfry in 2002 and Constantino Rocca’s victory over Tiger at Valderrama in 1997 are remembered as two of the competition’s great upsets.
Note the clue; all three of those upsets were achieved by a home player. Matchplay is a great leveller in any context, but all that noisy home support is probably worth an extra hole. In the pairs formats, it is probably easier for visiting teams to unite and block out the crowd. Singles on the other hand, seems to be quite a lonely experience. It is no coincidence that the home side has won four of the last five final day singles.
Stick with the obvious candidates in top scorer markets While the markets for each side’s top points-scorer appear to be 12-runner contests, in reality the number can be whittled down to the obvious few who are likely to play a minimum of four matches, and preferably all five. Over the last five Ryder Cups, every winner of these markets bar one had played the full quote of five. The exception, Chris Dimarco in 2004, played in four, and his 2.5 points tally has to be seen as something of a freak result; the consequence of his team’s massive defeat.
Who might be those players this year? Given his calf injury, it seems unlikely Westwood will be asked to carry such a burden, and with Garcia missing out, Europe are looking for new ‘team leaders’. I suspect the extra responsibility will fall on young guns Rory McIlroy and Martin Kaymer, whose wider form is the best available. The Molinari brothers must also be candidates, because if they play on the opening morning and win, it will be hard to ignore the reigning World Cup champions’ claim to be the perfect partnership.
For the Americans, assuming Tiger earns a wild-card, his reputation should ensure he plays the full quota. Captain Pavin will doubtless want to rekindle the pairing Tiger formed with Steve Stricker during the last Presidents Cup, which yielded a 100% record. Given Woods’ troubles, he may be a better price than usual too.
In addition to making such advance guesses about pairings, it could pay to follow the news closely in the days leading up to the start. Information about practice pairings is always reported, and given that both sides will contain a few players that nobody expects to play the full quota, it shouldn’t be too hard to narrow this down to four or five candidates.
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