Yards Per Point As A 2010 NFL Indicator

By Robert Ferringo

On our main source for NFL picks and predictions, Doc’s Sports.com, I posted an article discussing Yards Per Point. This is one of the least discussed statistics in football, but it is also an excellent indicator of success both straight up and against the spread. I was initially turned on to this idea by the work of another well respected handicapper (for obvious reasons, I can’t list his name, but I can say that it rhymes with “Bill Wheel”). He uses it primarily for college football I’ve found, through some research online, that certain statistical thresholds provide reliable data in the NFL as well. Again, the numbers I have are my own calculations built off the initial findings of others discussing the subject. (It’s not as if any one person invented the stat.)

You can read the full article on the main page to get a more in-depth explanation about these stats and how and why they are useful. But below I wanted to give you the Cliff’s Notes version of how Yards Per Point can help you in your preseason preparation.

Below are the 2009 Yards Per Point numbers for both offense and defense. I have segmented out each section and from there you can tell which clubs are, statistically speaking, set up for either a regression with their record or a nice bounce back in their record.

2009 YARDS PER POINT (OFFENSE)
The seven teams listed below have a 72 percent chance (49-19) of having a record that is either equal to or worse than what they posted in 2009.
New Orleans

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