By Robert Ferringo
Pitchers and catchers report to camp today and the MLB season is officially underway. I, for one, couldn’t be happier and I am already weeks into my MLB research. This is going to be a great year and I am expecting to get back to the
By Robert Ferringo
Here are the odds to win the 2010-11 College Basketball National Championship. Below the odds I have some predictions, recommendations, or suggestions - whatever you want to call them - on how to wager this futures bet. Enjoy.
Alabama
By Robert Ferringo
This week I’m going to start to release my 2010 NFL Previews. I’ll be rolling out the usual division-by-division format, with a look at every team in the league and what I think that their betting value is. Then in a couple weeks I’ll be releasing my famous NFL Futures, which have been a moneymaker for three straight years and, if you include other sports, have been an exceptional source of income (over $4,000 in profit) in the last three years.
But before we get to that, I wanted to post some updated NFL Season Win Totals for futures betting. These lines our courtesy of The Greek and of Vegas Insider. You’re going to see some pretty static numbers this week and next, but then by mid-August you’re going to start to see some flexing in the numbers. Any sharp bettor wants to be out in front of the curve when placing a wager, so I think you may find the best value by getting your wagers in early.
That said, the longer that you wait is still OK. You may not get the best numbers but you’ll have more information to work with, in regards to injuries, strategy, coaching maneuvers, and just watching how teams perform in the preseason. Some teams can definitely pick up momentum with a strong training camp and I can generally tell who is going to come firing out the gates by the way they approach their August tune-ups. For example, I knew that Miami and Atlanta were going to be much improved in 2008 by the aggressive, fired-up way that they approached the preseason. And last year it was San Francisco that came out cracking skulls in camp and that carried over to a decent little season. There are a lot of variables to consider during the regular season, but the early “buzz” of August can give you a little insight into what to expect when the bullets start firing for real.
So below is a look at some early NFL Season wins futures totals. Again, these are open lines and we’ll revisit the biggest movements again right before the regular season starts and see if the money is on its game or if the wise guys and public are set up to get buried again. Also, I will give a bit more commentary on these later this month, after I have release my futures selections. I don’t want to tip my hand.
Here are the 2010 NFL Season Win Totals for futures betting:
2010-11 NFL REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS
Team Open Current
Buffalo 5 5
Detroit 5 5
St. Louis 5 5
Cleveland 5.5 5.5
Tampa Bay 6 6
Oakland 6 6
Kansas City 6.5 6.5
Carolina 7 7
Jacksonville 7 7
Denver 7.5 7.5
Seattle 7.5 7.5
Arizona 7.5 7.5
Chicago 8 8
Cincinnati 8 8
Houston 8 8
Tennessee 8 8
Washington 8 8
Philadelphia 8 8
N.Y. Giants 8.5 8.5
San Francisco 8.5 8.5
Miami 8.5 8.5
Atlanta 9 9
Pittsburgh 9 9
N.Y. Jets 9.5 9.5
Minnesota 9.5 9.5
New England 9.5 9.5
Green Bay 9.5 9.5
Baltimore 10 10.0
Dallas 10 10
New Orleans 10.5 10.5
Indianapolis 11 11
San Diego 11 11
By Robert Ferringo
Below is a list of current odds for winning the AFC and NFC Championship. While picking the Super Bowl winner is the favorite betting prop for futures players, betting a team to win the conference title an provide better value because there are fewer teams to sift through in each conference. If you can realistically eliminate five or six teams from each conference (sorry Detroit fans, you’re not winning the NFC this year) then that really leaves just 8-10 teams with a legit shot in each conference. From there you can sift through value and take a shot on the teams that you like in each spot. And in the end you can probably come up with five or six teams that you think can cash this ticket. That’s a lot better odds than trying to find the four or five teams out of 32 that can win the Super Bowl.
In the AFC, I think that the best odds rest on the middle-tier teams. The usual suspects - Indianapolis, New England and San Diego - are relatively short odds, considering that they are each at the back end of their “dynastic” years. The Jets are appealing to some at 6-to-1, but that’s what is called a “Joey” play and is a bit of a sucker bet. I do like the NFL betting odds on the AFC North teams though. I think that this is a talented, deep division and that two of the teams out of the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals will make the playoffs. And I think that any one of those teams, once they make the postseason, would be a significant threat to win the AFC title.
In the NFC, things are a bit more wide-open. New Orleans is obviously one of the favorites, but the reality is that there hasn’t been a repeat NFC champion since 1997-1998 when the Packers made back-to-back Super Bowls. That seems to open the door for Dallas, who is clearly a Super Bowl contender. However, this conference has been known for its unpredictability over the last decade. Minnesota has decent odds - if Brett Favre comes back - and I think that Green Bay is a sucker play. I think that Washington, Arizona and San Francisco offer decent odds as longshot wagers, despite the fact that Arizona and San Fran have big question marks at quarterback.
Here is a look at the odds to win the 2010-11 AFC and NFC Championship:
ODDS TO WIN THE 2010-2011 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Team Open Current
Indianapolis 13/4 13/4
New England 9/2 9/2
San Diego 9/2 9/2
N.Y. Jets 17/2 6/1
Baltimore 11/1 7/1
Pittsburgh 13/2 10/1
Tennessee 10/1 12/1
Cincinnati 18/1 13/1
Houston 14/1 14/1
Miami 15/1 14/1
Denver 22/1 25/1
Jacksonville 22/1 25/1
Cleveland 30/1 40/1
Kansas City 60/1 50/1
Oakland 60/1 50/1
Buffalo 50/1 60/1
ODDS TO WIN THE 2010-2011 NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Team Open Current
Dallas 4/1 4/1
New Orleans 7/2 4/1
Green Bay 9/2 9/2
Minnesota 11/2 6/1
N.Y. Giants 15/2 15/2
Atlanta 10/1 10/1
Philadelphia 10/1 14/1
Washington 25/1 14/1
Chicago 14/1 15/1
San Francisco 20/1 20/1
Arizona 20/1 25/1
Carolina 30/1 30/1
Seattle 40/1 30/1
Detroit 40/1 40/1
Tampa Bay 60/1 50/1
St. Louis 75/1 75/1
