What Kempton Tells Us About Cheltenham

Can Binocular win the Champion Hurdle after winning the Christmas Hurdle?

As must always be the case, dear reader, after big pre-season races, the ante-post markets for the Cheltenham Festival events receives a rare old shake down.

On Saturday, Kempton hosted its two premium Boxing Day fixtures, the Christmas Hurdle and King George VI Chase.

Favoured for the two events were Binocular, last season’s Champion Hurdler, and four-time King George winner (as well as two time Gold Cup winner), Kauto Star.

History will have already dictated to you that Binocular won readily enough in the former, and Kauto finished a respectable third behind Long Run in the latter, Nicky Henderson’s up and coming chasing import.

But what does Kempton’s Christmas (or, in this case, January) form tell us with regards to the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup at Cheltenham in March? Let’s mull the deeper lessons of history to learn more.

In fact, each of the Christmas Hurdle winners who went on to contest the Champion Hurdle in the last ten years were beaten in the latter race. This list includes Go Native, the last Christmas Hurdle winner, who was sent off 11/4 favourite at Cheltenham.

However, contrast that with beaten horses in the Christmas Hurdle who go on to win in the Blue Riband at the Festival.

Binocular was only third in the Christmas Hurdle last year, but was simply imperious up Cleeve Hill come March.

Before him, Punjabi fell behind Harchibald on Boxing Day 2008 before winning the Champion Hurdle in 2009.

We then have to go all the way back to 2001/2 find the next Champion Hurdle winner to have run in the Christmas Hurdle. Hors La Loi III could finish no better than third to Landing Light at Kempton before finally lowering Istabraq’s crown at the Festival.

So the message is clear – be extremely wary of Christmas Hurdle winners in the Champion Hurdle. They often go off very short prices, but the totally different course constitution and pace in the race makes for a contrasting test of a horse’s racing talents.

Placed horses in the Christmas Hurdle have a decent record in the Champion, which might imply a second glance at the form of Donald McCain’s Overturn (25/1 for the March showpiece) and Alan Fleming’s Starluck (50/1).

The latter does seem to be a poor battler but could run into a place off his high cruising speed, and the former will stay well, so McCain looks to have a strong hand for the race with Peddlers Cross in there pitching too.

Kempton bullish about King George beating weather

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O'Grady sounds note of caution about Cup repeat

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excellent piece about money management

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Minimising losses and maximising returns

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Dunlop concern about going for Snow Fairy

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and Pakistan had been warned about dodgy connections..

More and more evidence is coming to light in the wake of the NotW scandal. GamblerFalls' blog points out that Shahid Afridi warned team management of the characters involved getting too close to the team. And naturally, what did team management do? Put their heads in the sand and ignore it....

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