The Grand National 2011 is now less than seven weeks away, dear reader, and I’ve finally got round to my initial preview. It’s one of the races I look forward to more than any other, because the trends are so strong.
That said, the last two years have had primary trends-busters about the winners. Of course, we can’t expect to get the winner every single year, although that would be nice! So what went wrong?
Well, Don’t Push It, ridden by a certain AP McCoy, came out best last term. There were a number of aspects to his Grand National profile that were unusual. Firstly, he carried more weight to victory than any winner since the mighty Red Rum completed his National hat-trick way back in 1977.
Secondly, he hadn’t won a Listed or better steeplechase in his career to that point, as all winners since Lord Gyllene in 1997 had. And thirdly, allied to his weight, he was the highest officially rated horse to win since… well I’m not sure actually, but definitely in the last fifteen years and more. He won off an official rating of 153.
Back in 2009, when Mon Mome prevailed, he was the first French bred winner for exactly a hundred years to triumph in the Grand National. Although I still believe French-breds have a heck of a lot to do to win the race, I’ve slightly revised my absolute ‘non’ to Frenchies, to instead look for a win over at least 3m2f in a Class 1 event (in other words, high class form at a staying trip).
The Frenchies were all trounced last year, and unless there are proven Gallic sloggers in the field, I’ll be against them once more.
OK, so those are the excuses for not finding the last two Grand National winners out of the way. Now let’s get down to business. I’ve analysed the last eleven years winners’ profiles and found some enlightening patterns. At least, I hope they are, as I’ve put my money where my virtual mouth is…! More on that in a moment.
So, the most pre-eminent Grand National trend is also the most obvious, despite a daft maxim to the contrary. Someone somewhere came up with the notion that you want a two mile chaser to win the Grand National. I presume it was a bookmaker because, despite my stated affection for contrarian theory, this is preposterous. The National is fully four and a half miles, a distance which makes it the longest in the British racing calendar. Two miles over steeplechase fences is the shortest possible distance, which perhaps helps to highlight the preposterosity of the maxim.
In any case, I need my Grand National shortlist to have won over at least three miles, and ideally further. All of the last eleven did, and nine had won over at least a furlong further.
Next we come to age, which also incorporates implicitly experience. Quite simply, no horse since 1940 (Bogskar) has won as a seven year old or younger, and the last teenager to come home in front in the Aintree showpiece was Sergeant Murphy in 1923, at the ripe old age of 13. So the conventional wisdom is that you want a horse aged between eight and twelve, and it’s hard to argue with that, given that every winner since the aforementioned Bogskar seventy years ago has matched that criterion.
But it doesn’t help us an awful lot, as most entries also fit the age mould. Looking a bit more precariously – and with an obvious eye to whittle down the 102 declared runners (or 101 after the sad demise of Glencove Marina) – I have noted that twelve of the last fifteen winners were aged nine or ten years old.
Bindaree won in 2002 as an 8yo, and Party Politics achieved the same feat a decade earlier but, on balance, it’s prudent to overlook this age group.
For now, I’ll leave the eleven and twelve year olds in, but will place a premium on horses age nine or ten.
OK, onwards, for there is much still to conjure with!
Much has been made of weight and official rating in the context of the Grand National, and I’m about to add my tuppence to the debate. It should be noted that the handicapper’s discretion in allocating weight outside of the direct edicts of the official ratings has changed the profile of National weight carrying requirements. I should add that I think it’s a great thing for the race, as more high class animals have been given some sort of a chance.
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