In my ongoing quest to beat parity with the bookmaking fraternity, I’ve taken a somewhat sideways look at the Cheltenham Festival and how we might eke out the aforementioned profit.
“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” – So said, if you believe Mark Twain, Benjamin Disraeli, though this is a moot point. Whoever did first elicit these wise words was destined to be remembered (or, as it turns out, forgotten!) forever after.
No matter, the point is well made (or at least made), so let’s dip our toe in the murky, contradictory waters of so many facts and figures.
First up, Cheltenham is one of those meetings where horses have a good chance, seemingly irrespective of their odds. But is that actually true?
In the context of value, and odds, it seems perfectly fair to use Betfair SP as a barometer of possibility. And if you accept that, then you’ll be heartened to know that if you simply backed all runners in all races for a level stake, you’d have WON money in five of the last seven years, and be in front overall.
As preposterous as that is, let’s delve deeper and try to conjure some sense from this numerical illusion. In fact, it gets better.
If we omitted anything sent off at bigger odds than 50/1 (i.e. 66/1 and up), we’d make a profit in six of the last seven years.
Given what we learnt yesterday about double-figure aged horses at Cheltenham (2 from 159 in the last seven years, and one of those in the Foxhunter Chase), it is eminently sensible to remove those, even though the other winner was Mister McGoldrick at 66/1.
Now then, why would a horse be such a big price? Three obvious reasons:
1. The horse is taking a big step up in class having never demonstrated its capability at this level. These types would have won or run close in lower grade races last time, as a crude barometer.
2. The horse has run against this grade of opposition on one or more occasions without winning.
3. The horse ran down the field last time, having previously been competitive at this level.
Let’s take a look at our odds (11/1 to 50/1) and age range (4-9) under these conditions, to see if that makes a blind bit of difference. OK, pay attention here because this is where it gets messy…
Looking at group 1, the up in class brigade, I checked those runners who were stepping up two or more classes on their last run, having finished 1st or 2nd last time. And there was a clear dichotomy.
In the non-novice handicaps, you’d have done your brains as seasoned performers at that level invariably bag the spoils. In novice company however (including novice handicaps like the Fred Winter and Jewson, now called Centenary), it’s a different story. Such horses would have returned a profit in five of the last six years, and you’d be miles in front backing them.
Group 2 and 3 now, and those who put in a stinker (or at least not in the first two) last time out and now run in a non-novice handicap have rewarded punters faith with juicy odds winners, and a profit in six of the last seven years (as well as a small loss inthe remaining year). Moreover, you’d have backed at least one winner each term.
If we go a step further though – and frankly, we’ve come so far down this path now that we’re beyond the point of no return
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