Plenty of top class action this weekend, dear reader, as we enter the ‘final prep zone’ for fancied horses tuning up for the big Cheltenham Festival. And where better to tune up than Cheltenham racecourse itself? As well as Cheltenham tomorrow, there’s also high class action at Doncaster today and tomorrow, and an informative fixture at Punchestown on Sunday.
Today at Doncaster sees my first – and possibly worst – Cheltenham Festival ante-post wager bid for a win at the fourth time of asking. Step forward, Franklino (3.05 Doncaster), who runs in the same colours as Mille Chief and Walkon, and had hopes that this one would be as good. The 25′s each way taken by me back in September, and advised to you as coming straight from the horse’s (well, Choc Thornton’s) mouth, is looking more like a 100/1 shot currently.
But such is the fickle nature of ante-post markets that one tidy victory today could propel him up the lists. In reality though, I suspect his smart trainer will more likely target the Fred Winter which might be right up his street.
He takes on another well-touted type who was disappointing so far over hurdles in Empire Levant from the Paul Nicholls stable. That Empire is still available at 20/1 tells you about the murky and less than top class Triumph picture, and I suspect we’ll know more after the weekend as there’s also a tip top juvenile hurdle on the Cheltenham card tomorrow.
The other race of interest to me today is the 1.00 Fontwell, where Definity will be bidding for another short priced notch for the novice chase system I mentioned to you recently. Since I mentioned it, there have been six winners from nine runners (albeit, all at odds on, as that is a rule of the system), for a small profit using Betfair – when we’re betting at the margins we need to take the bits and pieces of bonus offered there.
Unusually in such a small sample, two of the three losers to date tipped up. We’d normally expect maybe one in ten to do that.
Onto tomorrow, and all roads lead up Cleeve Hill and to Cheltenham. There will be Festival market movers aplenty, starting in the opening JCB Triumph Hurdle trial at 12.55. Here, although the entries are not yet finalised, it looks like Smad Place will take on Grandouet. Given that they are first and second favourite for the Triumph Hurdle itself, expect one of these to contract and the other to skid in the lists.
If you want a bit of value though, the one who beat Empire Levant last time – on hurdling debut – is Colin Tizzars’s Third Intention. He’s currently 25/1 for the Triumph but that is bound to at least halve if he lifts the spoils here. Given that he probably works with Cue Card at home, he could be pretty useful, and I’ve had a couple of speculative quid (
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