Finally, we have some jump racing, dear reader, and not just any old jump racing either. Cheltenham stage their December ‘International’ meeting over two days, today and tomorrow. And a stellar card has had a further jewel added to it in the form of the Tingle Creek, which has been re-routed from Sandown’s recent abandonment.
Whilst the majority of the big races are tomorrow, today’s Listed Majordomo Hospitality Handicap Chase (2.25 Cheltenham) has a top class alumni, which includes Mon Mome, Royal Auclair, Kingscliff and Marlborough in the last decade. A field of the class that befits such a race has assembled, and the trends seem strong if not bulletproof. So let’s try to whittle down the seventeen starters to a shortlist of plausible contenders.
First up, with the exception of 2006 winner, D’Argent, all of the other nine winners were aged six to eight years old. D’Argent at nine was the outlier. Older horses have failed to score and are struck from the field. So it’s pip pip! to From Dusk To Dawn, That’s Rhythm, Knowhere and Irish Raptor.
Now then, after that early ‘weeding of the weak’, let’s look at the race parameters today. It’s nigh on three and a quarter miles at top speed over Cheltenham’s testing circuit. No wonder that nine of the last ten winners had won over 3m1f or more. And, moreover, that eight of the ten had previously been first or second over at least three miles here at Chelters.
Neptune Collonges hasn’t, nor has Rare Bob. Nor Exmoor Ranger, Forest Pennant, Palypso De Creek, Presenting Forever or Appleaday.
Eleven down on those scores, six left standing. The remaining stats players are: Midnight Chase, Knockara Beau, Beat The Boys, Horner Woods, Faasel and Any Currency. I’d fancy the winner to be lurking in that sextet. But where exactly?
Well, eight of the last ten winners were officially rated between 132 and 150. Furthermore, eight of ten had just one seasonal run (six) or came here for their seasonal debut (two), and the other two had two and three previous seasonal runs. These two elements in conjunction suggest that Midnight Chase, impeccable flag bearer for the rising Neil Mulholland yard, has it all to do here.
Down at the other end of the weights, Any Currency has had two previous seasonal outings, and flirts with the lower reaches of the official ratings band. Neither element is sufficient to deal a killer blow, but I will look elsewhere for a more robust ‘fit’.Especially considering that, aside from the years when ten and eleven runners contested this race, the other eight had all won in fields of at least thirteen. Any Currency did win a point to point in a against thirteen rivals, but under rules the most he has vanquished at a single turn is eleven.
Of course, he was second in a field of seventeen behind Midnight Chase here last time, so I’m not sure whether those raw data actually help or hinder my point here! Ultimately, I can’t get shot of this chap whichever angle I take, and he remains a blot on my trends chart…
Knockara Beau was pulled up last time, something none of the previous ten winners did on their prior start, and there has to be a question mark against his wellbeing for a battle royale such as this. Aside from that, he has plenty going for him in the context of this race. For instance, like nine of the winners in the last decade, he has won or placed in 50% or more of his chase runs.
So too has Midnight Chase. And Beat The Boys. And Faasel. And Any Currency. Horner Woods hasn’t, and it’s quite possible that his one piece of standout form – when second in the RSA Chase here back in 2008 – was a freak of circumstance that day, never to be repeated. (There’s also an outside chance that he’ll win and make the above sentence look quite preposterous, and it’s author commensurately ridiculous!)
At this point, I’m going to reluctantly draw a line through the nine year old, Beat The Boys. His age group has a poor overall record, and his own recent form doesn’t really stand up to close scrutiny (pulled up or fell in seven of his last ten starts, though did win two of the others). The final nail in his race consideration coffin is this: all seven of the non-French-bred winners of this race had had twelve or less chasing starts. Beat The Boys, an Irish bred, will be having his nineteenth chase run and it is unlikely that he has anything hidden from the handicapper by now.
The other shortlisted nine year old is Faasel, and his life support machine, in the context of this race, is kept a-beeping by the fact that he is trained by David Pipe. The Pipe’s have won four of the last ten renewals of this affair, and whilst that normally means dad won them all, in this case it’s two apiece.
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